Is a foreclosure deluge on it's way? Hmmmmm?????

Bay Area median sale price tops year-ago level for first time since ‘07
November 19, 2009La Jolla, CA.----
The Bay Area’s housing market continued to ease back toward normalcy last month as fewer distressed properties sold and $500,000-plus sales accounted for a greater share of transactions than a year ago. The result: The nine-county region posted a modest year-over-year gain in its median sale price – the first in nearly two years, a real estate information service reported.
The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos that closed escrow rose to $390,000, up 6.8 percent from $365,000 in September and up 4 percent from $375,000 in October 2008. The last time the median sale price rose on a year-over-year basis was in November 2007, when it gained 1.5 percent, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
Last month’s median was the highest since it was $395,000 in July this year, but it was 41.4 percent below the $665,000 peak reached in June and July of 2007.
“The regional price statistics mainly reflect the fading of the foreclosures and the uptick in high-end activity in recent months,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president. “Down at the neighborhood level, different things are happening depending on location, but the big picture is that prices in many areas appear to be bouncing along bottom. Whether that bottom is permanent is the subject of endless debate right now.”
In addition to the Bay Area overall, three counties – Santa Clara, Marin and Sonoma – saw their median sale prices rise year-over-year last month. The last time that more than one county posted an annual gain in the median was November 2007. Also last month, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Francisco and the nine-county region overall posted single-digit annual gains in their median price paid for a specific home-type: resale single-family detached houses.
A total of 7,933 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 0.7 percent from 7,879 in September and up 4.2 percent from 7,613 in October 2008.
Last month’s sales were 10.2 percent below the October sales average of 8,833 since 1988, when DataQuick’s stats begin. October sales have ranged from a low of 5,486 in 2007 to a high of 13,392 in 2003. The average change in sales between September and October since 1988 is a gain of 0.9 percent.
Sales in the region’s higher-cost counties – Marin, San Francisco, Santa Clara and San Mateo – represented 42.2 percent of October sales, up from 35.3 percent a year ago, when more sales were concentrated in the lower-cost inland areas rife with deeply discounted foreclosures. Sales over $500,000 made up 36 percent of all sales last month, up from 34.9 percent a year ago and a low this year of 22.7 percent in January.
October’s overall increase in sales from September and a year ago came even as fewer foreclosed properties sold. Foreclosure resales – homes sold in October that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 31.9 percent of all resale activity. That was down from 32.3 percent the prior month and 44.0 percent in October 2008. It was the lowest since foreclosure resales were 29.9 percent of all resales in June 2008. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52 percent of Bay Area resales in February this year.
Between January 2000 and December 2007, foreclosure resales averaged only about 1 percent of all Bay Area resales each month. Since January 2008, the monthly average for foreclosure resales is about 37 percent.
The recent decline in foreclosure resales follows a generally downward trend this year in the number of homes being foreclosed on. It’s mainly because lenders and loan servicers have increasingly pursued short sales and loan modifications as an alternative to the costly foreclosure process. The declining inventory of lower-cost foreclosures has been key to stabilizing the housing market, along with the federal government’s efforts to boost housing demand through lower mortgage rates, tax incentives and plentiful, low-down-payment FHA financing.
Federally-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, made up 25.9 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans last month. That was up from 24.9 percent in September, 19 percent a year ago and less than 1 percent two years ago.
Meanwhile, the availability of financing for pricier homes continued to show mild signs of improvement, but such “jumbo” loans remained relatively expensive and difficult to obtain.
Mortgages above $417,000 – formerly the definition of a jumbo loan – made up 30.1 percent of all home purchase loans last month. That was up from 29.6 percent in September and 25.9 percent a year ago. More than 60 percent of Bay Area purchase loans were over $417,000 before the August 2007 credit crunch hit.
Another fuel source for high-end sales – adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) – continues to be used far less than what’s been normal historically, but has trended higher lately. In October, 8.1 percent of Bay Area purchase loans were ARMs, up from 7.9 in September and 7.4 percent a year earlier. ARMs fell to a record low of 3.0 percent in January this year. ARMs had averaged 61 percent of the region’s purchase loans this decade up until the August 2007 credit crunch.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated in Alameda and San Mateo counties.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,665 last month, up from $1,578 the previous month, and down from $1,837 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 36.7 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 53.3 percent below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is off its recent peak but remains high by historical standards, with mortgage default notices flattening out or trending lower in some areas but edging higher in others. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes are stable, and non-owner occupied buying is above-average in some markets, MDA DataQuick reported.
Source: DataQuick Information Systems

Media calls: Andrew LePage (916) 456-7157 or John Karevoll (909) 867-9534

Copyright 2009 DataQuick Information Systems. All rights reserved.

Is the real estate market still so volatile

from the WSJ, Nov. 17, 2009
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
The U.S. housing market has been in a slump for the past four years. When will it ever end?
In recent years, real estate has proven as jittery and unreliable as any other market. The average U.S. home price nearly doubled between January 2000 and April 2006, according to the First American LoanPerformance index. Since then, the average has fallen about 30%. The drop has been 53% in the Las Vegas metropolitan area and 39% in Miami, where about a quarter of all households with mortgages are behind on their payments or in foreclosure. The value of your home might be determined more by whether the neighbors keep their jobs than whether the house has ample light and closet space.
Here is a guide to navigating a fractured and volatile market:
Neighborhood Market Watch

1. Is the housing market getting better?
It has shown some signs of healing this year, but the much-touted recovery is tentative and fragile.
Home sales have increased from the severely depressed levels of 2008. The inventory of unsold homes listed for sale also is down. Bidding wars are breaking out for foreclosed homes in the sorts of neighborhoods (near jobs and decent schools) that attract both first-time buyers and investors seeking rental properties.
But more than 6.7 million U.S. households with mortgages, or about 13%, are behind on their payments or are in the foreclosure process, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Eventually, many of them will lose those homes, sending more supply onto the market. Unemployment has continued to rise, and the housing market is unlikely to show a sustained recovery until job growth resumes.
While the supply of middle-class homes on the market has declined somewhat, it remains ample in most places. And there is a huge glut of high-end houses for sale in many areas. That means prices of high-end homes might still have a long way to fall.
2. When will housing bottom out?
There probably won't be any clear turning point. Monthly indicators, such as home sales and prices, tend to bounce erratically from month to month, making it hard to discern the underlying trend. And the housing bust will end at different times in different places. House prices already might have bottomed out in the coveted Virginia suburbs with short commutes into Washington, D.C., for instance. But it probably will be years before all of the unsold condos find buyers in parts of Florida.
Generalizations about states or metropolitan areas don't say much about what is happening in your neighborhood. In Summit, N.J., known for good schools and an easy, 45-minute train commute to Manhattan, the median home price in September was up 1.2% from a year earlier, according to Otteau Valuation Group, an appraisal company. In Atlantic City, N.J., which suffers from too much speculative building of condominiums and weak demand for vacation homes, the median price is down about 12% from a year ago.
3. What signals should I watch to determine whether my local market is improving?
One way to get a sense of supply is to ask a good local real estate agent for stats on how many homes are listed for sale in your town and how many months it would take at the current sales rate to absorb that supply. Anything over about six months generally is considered high, meaning that sellers might have to cut prices. Another way to get a sense of a neighborhood's health is to count the number of for-sale signs and vacant houses. If there are more than a couple vacant homes in a block, that might be a bad sign, particularly if no one is taking care of them.
The supply of homes listed for sale has fallen very sharply in some areas. But the supply is likely to balloon again in many areas with a renewed surge in foreclosures. Many local newspapers provide information on foreclosure filings.
Demand depends heavily on the job market. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides unemployment rates by metropolitan area. In September, they ranged from 2.9% in Bismarck, N.D., to 30% in El Centro, Calif. State and local agencies provide job-market data, too. Celia Chen, a housing economist at Moody's Economy.com, says help-wanted signs can be a useful local indicator; if you start seeing more of them around your neighborhood, that is a sign that business in your area could be starting to recover.
4. How can I figure out the value of my home?
You never know for sure what a home will fetch until you put it on the market, and then it is partly a matter of luck. Will the eager buyer who shares your taste in home style and neighborhood show up on day one or day 200?
Some Web sites -- including Zillow.com, HomeGain.com and Cyberhomes.com -- provide estimates of individual home values. These estimates are largely based on recent sales of nearby homes, and in some cases they are wildly off the mark. But they often provide a ballpark idea of a home's value.
You might come closer to the real value by talking to a local agent and looking at recent prices for homes that you know are very similar to yours. If you want to be more scientific and don't mind paying a few hundred dollars, hire a professional appraiser.
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Associated Press
For-sale signs were displayed outside new condominiums in Lincoln Park, Mich., in April.5. Does it matter whether I'm "under water"?
At least you have plenty of company. About 20% of owners of single-family homes with mortgages owe more than the current estimated value of their homes, according to Zillow.com.
If you can afford your monthly payment and don't need to move soon, that might not be a big problem. But it is hard, and sometimes impossible, to refinance a mortgage if you are under water, and you will take a bath if you have to sell the home now. Some people who can afford to make their monthly mortgage payments are deciding it doesn't make sense to do so because they don't expect their home values ever to recover to past peaks, and they could rent similar houses for much lower monthly costs.
6. If I lose my home to foreclosure, how long will it take to repair my credit record?
It probably will be three to five years before you can qualify for a home mortgage insured by the government, depending on your circumstances, and that assumes you have re-established a record for paying your bills on time. The foreclosure will remain a blot on your credit record for seven years, likely raising your interest costs even if you do get another loan. If you pay bills on time, keep your credit-card balances low and don't apply for too many cards, you can make a "slow, gradual improvement" in your credit score, says Tom Quinn, a vice president at Fair Isaac Corp., which provides tools for analyzing credit records.
7. If I'm renting, is now a good time to buy a house?
It may well be. Prices in most areas are well below their peaks, even if they haven't hit bottom. Don't kid yourself that you can time the bottom of the market perfectly. But don't feel any pressure to buy in a hurry, because the supply of housing is likely to remain ample for years in many areas.
Generally, it doesn't make sense to buy unless you expect to remain in the house for at least four or five years, because the transaction costs -- including commissions for real estate agents and mortgage fees -- are heavy.
But now is clearly a good time to rent. Many landlords need tenants badly. The national apartment-vacancy rate in the third quarter was 7.8%, the highest in 23 years, according to Reis Inc., a New York research firm. So landlords are cutting rents and offering such sweeteners as free flat-screen televisions or several months of free rent to retain or attract tenants. Some owners of condos will "cut their throats to get some kind of rental income to cover part of their expenses," says Jack McCabe, a real estate consultant in Deerfield Beach, Fla.
8. Can I get a tax credit if I buy a home now?
Under an expanded and extended program approved by Congress earlier this month, tax credits are available to many people who buy or sign a contract to buy a principal residence by April 30 and complete the purchase by June 30. The tax credit is up to $8,000 for first-time home buyers and $6,500 for people who already have owned a home for at least five consecutive years during the previous eight years. The credit is available for individual taxpayers with annual incomes of up to $145,000 or joint filers with incomes up to $245,000.
9. Can I get a mortgage on attractive terms?
Only if you have a good credit record, a moderate amount of debt in relation to your income and the ability to fully document your income. That last requirement is fairly easy for people who work for a salary and have had the same employer for more than two years, but it can be tough for self-employed people with incomes that vary substantially from year to year.
A borrower with a strong credit score of 740 or higher (on the scale of 300 to 850) and the ability to make a down payment of at least 20% could get an interest rate of about 5% with no origination fees on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, says Lou Barnes, a mortgage banker in Boulder, Colo. But if your credit score is 680, the rate jumps to about 5.5%.
People who can't make a down payment of at least 20% generally are being funneled into loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration. That means paying extra fees for the FHA insurance.
Borrowing costs are steeper at the high end of the housing market. For so-called jumbo loans -- those above $729,750 in areas with the highest housing costs or $417,000 in places with the lowest costs -- interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages last week averaged 5.95%, according to HSH Associates, a financial publisher.
10. Should I invest in foreclosed homes?
Probably not. A lot of investors chase these properties, and only the most experienced know how to deal with all of the pitfalls. Homes auctioned at trustee or sheriff sales are sold on an as-is basis, and there is no provision for an inspection before you take ownership. If after buying you find out that termites have been treating the floor joists as an all-you-can-eat buffet, that is your problem. You must pay for the full price within a day or two, so you need a lot of cash or access to special short-term loans for investors that come with interest rates of around 18%. This is a pursuit best left to people with a lot of time, nerve, cash and knowledge of the local market.

Home Buyers Tax credit extended until April 30, 2010 Also previous home owners can now be eligable for a $6k tax credit

http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/05/news/economy/Extending_unemployment_benefits/index.htm?postversion=2009110611



Tax break for buying a home
The legislation also will extend the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit to contracts signed by April 30 and closed by June 30. The controversial credit, which many say has boosted home sales in recent months, was set to expire after Nov. 30.

The bill also creates a $6,500 credit for those who buy a home after living in their current house at least five years. That measure will apply to contracts signed by April 30 and closed by June 30. The current credit defines a first-time homebuyer as someone who has not owned a residence within the past three years.

The credit will be available only for the purchase of principal residences priced at $800,000 or less.

The bill will raise the adjusted gross income cap to $125,000 for single filers and $225,000 for joint filers. The amount of the credit currently begins to phase out for taxpayers whose adjusted gross income is more than $75,000, or $150,000 for joint filers.

"It's gonna put people back to work, the home builders, put people in the real estate business," said Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn. "The kind of jobs that can make a difference."

The extension will cost $10.8 billion over 10 years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.

Through mid-September, 1.4 million tax returns had qualified for the credit, according to the IRS. Some portion of those returns, which the IRS couldn't specify, represents buyers who took advantage of an earlier version of the tax credit, which was only worth $7,500 and has to be repaid over time.

By the end of November, the credit will have been used by 1.8 million homebuyers, at least 355,000 of whom would not have bought a house without the tax break, according to estimates by the National Association of Realtors.

"The data on the present home buyer tax credit show that the credit has had its intended impact -- sales have jumped in recent months to a projected 5.1 million for the year and housing inventory has been trimmed, thus stabilizing home prices noticeably," said Ron Phipps, the association's first vice president, in Senate testimony last month.